Corn/Soybean Yields

[bernstem]

What are the crops looking like around you?

Northwest Iowa is looking good. Some farmers are estimating 180+ bushel corn and 50+ bushel soybeans.

[ez2luvlawn]

Corn is looking good in my area but soybeans are in bad shape due to late planting this spring due to wet conditions. It is not uncommon for corn to go 200+ bushels per acre around here and I am sure that will be story again this year. Soybeans are anybody's guess this year.

I'll be able to give some accurate numbers in the next 2 weeks or so.

[pwking]

As mentioned in the other thread, our crops are looking pretty weak. They are saying a little better than last year around here. Not much, but a little. I'm located in Wall Lake, Iowa and we just missed any decent rain this year from mid-June on. We haven't had a rain over 6 tenths since June 14.

I haven't heard much on the beans but expect that to be spotty too. Also, on the corn, the stocks are getting fairly weak and starting to lean. We'll lose some yield due to that as well.

[bernstem]

Overall corn harvests are expected to be up this year, but Soybeans are the big unknown. With late planting and dry weather during the critical fruiting stages, people are concerned that yields will be soft.

The Chicago board is clearly bullish on Corn with prices hovering just above 4.50, but I don't think any farmers are really selling at that price. It will be interesting to see what happens as people start harvesting.

[ez2luvlawn]

This is going to be an interesting fall harvest season.

[texasweed]

The Chicago board is clearly bullish on Corn with prices hovering just above 4.50, but I don't think any farmers are really selling at that price.

What are futures selling for? That will give you an idea of what is going to happen.

[bernstem]

Grain pricing is interesting. New product only really comes along twice per year. Until then, it is all speculation. There is almost no carry over from last year, so no one is really selling any corn. All they are doing is trying to estimate the fall harvest.

As for the market: http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricul ... /corn.html

Dec 2013 is 4.50.
Dec 2014 is 4.90.
Dec 2015 is 5.00.

The Chicago corn board, though, can be very volatile. Unlike the stock market, it is not unusual for it to hit trading limits based on updated crop reports and other information. Just a year ago, corn was trading at almost 8.00 a bushel. You don't see anyone talking about the 60% drop in the corn market much in the general media, but I can guarantee that if the stock market was off 60% year to year, it would be national news.

Also, in case anyone is interested, average Iowa corn yields by county can be found here: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/c ... /a1-12.pdf

There is also the interesting aspect that most producers don't actually sell their corn on the Chicago board. Most farmer sell to their local co-op or ethanol plant. That is also the elephant in the room. As long as Ethanol plants can make money (and they make a lot right now as long as corn is under 5.00, they will buy all the corn they can). It wasn't too long ago this year that the Ethanol plant was buying corn at 0.50 above the (Chicago) board. Personally, I wouldn't start selling much corn until the price hits 5.00. I don't think it is going down much since Ethanol plants will buy everything they can for 4.50 at the plant. That sets a bit of a floor on the price.

[bernstem]

Not much corn being harvested in NW Iowa yet, but Soybeans are coming in. The farmers I have spoken to are seeing yields in the 50-55 bushel range. One brother/sister operation harvested 65 bushels/acre in one field. The combine operator on that field said he has never seen anything like it.

[bernstem]

Harvest is well underway in NW Iowa. At least around there, the crop is going to be huge. Several farmers are seeing corn yields of 280 bushels per acre at the top end with most fields coming in at 200. Soybeans are also doing well. Top yields are 70 bushels per acre with most fields coming in at 50-55. It will be interesting to see the official average.

Andy will perhaps find it interesting that the fields that were tested two years ago and had the soil chemistry adjusted and are seeing a dramatic increase in yields. The previous farmer never tested or did any soil work. The current farmer adjusted the soil nutrient levels two years ago and uses composted chicken manure rather than chemical fertilizers for most of the fertilization. Not surprisingly, the calcareous soils in those fields yielded ~30% less than the non-calcareous soils. Further adjustments to fertilization levels are being made this year based on both yield maps and soil maps.

[andy10917]

Andy will perhaps find it interesting that the fields that were tested two years ago and had the soil chemistry adjusted and are seeing a dramatic increase in yields.

Really? I'm so surprised.

[ez2luvlawn]

That is real proof that a soil that is tuned up will produce great results over a soil that is ignored and not adjusted. Those are some big numbers in yields.

Many farmers are done or near done here in MN. Corn has been up to 255 bushels per acre and beans up to 60 bushels per acre. The results are not what most were expecting and I am hearing that most expected better results with the corn. Corn has averaged 200 and beans averaged 50.