Winters with lots of rain: less snow?

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Green
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Winters with lots of rain: less snow?

Post by Green » January 10th, 2023, 7:09 pm

This is the 3rd La Nina Winter in a row, I believe. Combined with the "atmospheric river"/onshore flow hitting the West Coast, it's causing January to be a bit warmer than average. We are still getting all the precipitation we normally do so far, just that more of it seems to be rain than in an average year. Supposed to be like this through most of January.

We normally get 35-40 inches of snow in an average Winter. I know they say snow tends to be a 10:1 ratio to rain. I'm wondering though, is this rain we're currently getting likely just the normal precipitation that would have created a lot of snow most years? Or is this extra rain, and the second half or two-thirds of the Winter might have 25+ inches of snow crammed into a short period of time to "make up for" what we haven't gotten yet?

For those who have been following weather for decades, how has it worked in past years that have this sort of pattern? I realize no one can predict what will happen, of course.

I'm hoping that more rain ends up meaning less snow.

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Re: Winters with lots of rain: less snow?

Post by turf_toes » January 12th, 2023, 8:50 am

That would be dependent on your local climate. I’d start by looking into historical weather patterns for your zip code. That should be your source of truth. Everything else will be speculation.

https://www.wunderground.com/history

This blog entry on the weather underground specifically discusses snowfall over time.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/US-Sn ... ecade-Look

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Re: Winters with lots of rain: less snow?

Post by MorpheusPA » January 21st, 2023, 3:29 pm

Warmer atmospheres hold more water. So if you'd normally get snow, you'd get rain...and more of it...but it hits potentially frozen ground and runs off.

Except our soil never froze this year and it's absorbing but still soaked. There's potential impact in some areas from snowpack that would melt slowly in spring and add to aquifers and water sources as well. The situation isn't simple. For us here in the eastern US, that tends to not be so much of the case...although I'm actually not sure about some parts of Maine.

We went from a minor drought to just fine. If this had been snow, we'd be buried.

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Re: Winters with lots of rain: less snow?

Post by Green » January 29th, 2023, 10:46 pm

Yeah. That's the answer: it's warm enough that the amount of rain is excessive and ridiculous. We had 13+ inches of rain since Thanksgiving! Buried is not an exaggeration had it been snow instead. 125 inches of snow in two months? No thanks. And that's 3-4x the normal Winter total. Drought is pretty much over; that's the only good thing. The soil is so waterlogged that lawns around here have suffered root dieback, resulting in a dormant color despite the mild temperatures. The color was actually better during the early December cold snap than it is now and has been the past month. I've had to bail water a few times out of a drainage trench I started to dig in the Fall (mini dry well). I bet most of my Nitrogen from my winterizer is gone, too.

How much rain and snow there in PA so far? As much rain as us? As far as snow, I think we've had at least 2.5 so far. Not typical but to be expected with the mild temps. What I didn't except was excessive rain (but if it's partly a product of the warmer atmosphere and to be expected in this situation, it makes sense).

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Re: Winters with lots of rain: less snow?

Post by MorpheusPA » February 15th, 2023, 7:17 pm

We've now gone into a warm, dry winter which is...not good, with no snow at all. Rain's expected tomorrow, but really, that's the first major rain in February and the only real rainstorm expected. Today? Nearly seventy degrees, sunny, windows wide open.

One snow event, 1/4", making this the most snow-free winter so far on record. I have tulips sprouting in the garden (normal for late March into early April) and hyacinths (ditto). The crocuses are already well underway.

Half the lawn drowned in the early winter deluge, then dried out severely in the midwinter drought. Losses look pretty bad this year. And frankly, if this presages next summer or the next El Nino cycle...it's gonna get ugly.

The only amusing thing is that my cousins, who Do Not Believe In Climate Change (and couldn't read a science book if you paid 'em), have lost two thirds of their pear trees and are working on losing half their apple trees to the last three years. I've advised them that Climate Change has nothing to do with it, nothing at all, and to just keep trying. It's sure to totally get better any day now. Any day now.


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Re: Winters with lots of rain: less snow?

Post by turf_toes » February 17th, 2023, 10:26 am

Morph, the politics of all that aside (I tend to believe scientists over political people when it comes to established science), I think it will be interesting to watch migration patterns here in the U.S. over the next 30 years.

Current trends have most folks moving south and along coastal areas.

I’ve read articles predicting a reversal of those patterns in the near future. (Next 30 years or so.)

The combination of sea level rises and drought due to climate change supposedly will lead to folks moving to areas like Michigan and Minnesota (easy access to the Great Lakes which contain the worlds largest supply of fresh water)

It will be “interesting” to watch how it plays out. A betting person with a long view might start buying real estate there.

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Re: Winters with lots of rain: less snow?

Post by MorpheusPA » February 17th, 2023, 3:02 pm

When science and politics collide, bet on the science; the last time it happened, the science-denying politics side lost half a percent of its people to the grave. As this continues, polio is making a resurgence, I haven't had a decent boreal plant in my garden in ten years, and even some of the temperate ones aren't doing so great any longer. I can compensate. It's simply amusing to watch my cousins scorn that thar book larnin' and make the same mistakes over and over again without listening to simple sense or science.

I've seen the same articles; the heaviest population movements (in the US) have folks moving to Florida, South Carolina, Texas, and the like--the states already hard-hit and soon to be even harder-hit. On the up side, where I am will hold together quite beautifully through my lifetime, with compensations.

On the down side, don't depend on the Great Lakes past the first water war. If I wanted to play crazy Dear Leader, the first thing I'd do after losing the war would involve two pounds of heavy metal. And bluntly, even the US has had at least four crazy Dear Leaders.

On a lighter note, my response to this is to look for either a bluegrass cultivar that does better--unlikely--or to flex if the grass doesn't recover and lighten up a bit and look for a good dark clumping fescue to mix in with it. If you can't beat 'em, join 'em.

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Re: Winters with lots of rain: less snow?

Post by Green » February 17th, 2023, 5:59 pm

Agree with all of the above. How it shakes out will be interesting though.

As far as grass, I embraced Tall Fescue when I started with this stuff, 10 years ago (mixed with the most drought tolerant KBG cultivars I could find). I knew what was happening with climate and picked grass types accordingly for the future. It still has a way to go as far as refinement, but I'd say it's halfway there at this point. We already saw Perennial Ryegrass get refined dramatically before that, and the same is happening with Fescue the last 25 years. It will get there eventually, but jo grass type is perfect.

Which reminds me, the other day while getting a haircut, I brought up the Superbowl turf. (This year's was a weird Bermuda grass and Perennial Ryegrass mix...before I knew that after the game, I saw a close-up on TV, and swore it was Ryegrass). Anyway, I just found out that my hair cutter, who I've gone to for over 25 years, has Zoysia. Most likely, his dad planted it. It sounds like a very old, established lawn, and he gets by with no fertilizer (likely nutrient cycling of clippings, but I didn't ask). But the major thing he likes about is that it does well in the heat, is thick, looks good, and bounces back quickly from drought while newly overseeded neighboring cool season lawns died out in areas after the last drought last Summer.

Last October, I was at a funeral in my area, and the cemetery Zoysia (in a hilly region prone to cold snaps) was still green. It looked good and felt good underfoot. At Thanksgiving, visiting coastal CT family, the neighbor's Zoysia was still green (Zone 7a, and technically the Northern fringe of the transition zone by some of the latest definitions). Supposedly where I am (inland, 6b) will be 7a in about 25 years.

So, this all just reaffirms in my mind, I wonder if warm season grasses will gain more and more traction in the Northeast as climate becomes more volatile and shifts warmer. I've wondered this for a few years now, ever since the drought periods and la nina patterns have been common. The zones definitely keep shifting Northward, though.

For now, I'm happy with the current batch of fairly refined cool season grasses even though they aren't perfect and nothing is. I can't ever see giving them up here in the Northeast, and I hope the refinements will continue.

But for other areas, like southern CA, facing far more severe long-term drought and water shortages, it seems like cool season grass is not a good answer. They love their Marathon dwarf Tall Fescue blend down there, but at the same time, it's disturbing that things have gotten so bad that people are offered rebates to remove all their grass; when warm season grass is probably a feasible and better environmental choice in many cases than...rocks, which trap heat.

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Re: Winters with lots of rain: less snow?

Post by MorpheusPA » February 17th, 2023, 9:05 pm

I am very certain that Zoysia, which already does OK in my climate (it merely looks bad from October into early May, but stunning over our now hot summers) will become more popular. It doesn't have any trouble surviving our winters, even back when we had winters. This winter? There really wasn't much of one.

My team at work is very far-flung (we laugh that our daily meetings involve the after-lunch pair from the Dominican Republic, three from the area who are just before lunch (including me), my boss, an hour behind, and three in California south of Los Angeles. We trade photos; the DR is gorgeous. A lot of that part of California is xeriscaped and features a lot of natural plants. But there's still way too much grass for my taste in a region that's mostly desert. Embrace the local climate.

I have to look at ryes and fescues; honestly, I do prefer the look of rye, but it tends to be a bit less...tailored. With the robot, however, growth rates are immaterial. It's mowed five days a week, so no blade is ever out of place (and amusingly, 70% of my power is hydroelectric, so it's even mostly-renewable).

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Re: Winters with lots of rain: less snow?

Post by Green » February 17th, 2023, 10:40 pm

Morph,

With a robot mower, and certain Turf type Tall Fescue culitvars trained to a lower cut, you can even get away with a sub-2-inch mowing height if your surface is even enough. I know you're not a low cut guy, but I also know the robots don't currently cut quite as high as rotary mowers can.

Generally, you can still tell the current cultivars' Tall Fescue grass blades from Perennial Rye and/or fine fescue blades, as still they tend to be much wider and have a less defined mid-vein, as you'd expect. However, occasionally, I have an instance where it's actually hard to tell two of the three or all three species apart, because Tall Fescues have gotten finer over time, and occasionally will throw up some very fine blades (just as Red Fescue occasionally throws up some slightly wider blades).

The drought dormancy response is also slightly better for Fescue versus Rye. Are the breeders going to go so far as to incorporate Mediterranean germplasm regularly (that of strongly Summer dormant types)? I don't know. Those sacrifice the drought avoidance and persistent green in high temperatures that we Americans seem to value in our Fescue?

There was also at least one research group gojng back a decade that was supposedly looking to do more overt crosses of Lolium perenne with Lolium arundinaceum (yes, Tall Fescue is now considered a Lolium). I'm not sure what happened to them, or if they're still working on it. I haven't seen any turf-type Rye-fescue (TTRF) cultivar introduced yet. However I know for a fact that some of the Ryegrass and fescue cultivars I use do already have bits of germplasm from the other species integrated.

Another thing that might be worth looking into is Tetraploid TTPR, which seems to be getting more focus, but I don't know if it helps with heat tolerance or not. They claim slightly better cold performance mostly, and I believe the blades are on the coarser side.

And then of course back on the Bluegrass side, we have the the recent focus on Kentucky-Texas Bluegrass hybrids, which claim better Summer performance than KBG, and aim to be more competitive with TTTF.

I feel like cool season still has a lot of juice left...

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Re: Winters with lots of rain: less snow?

Post by MorpheusPA » February 19th, 2023, 1:52 pm

I'm actually a super high cut sort--3" or higher. It keeps the turf from being particularly thirsty, plus makes the grass very soft and springy underfoot.

Regrettably, anything that I do add has to match the existing KBG unless I do a full reno (I'd rather not). So it has to be relatively fine-bladed, very dark green, and feature adequate winter performance at minimum. Summer performance is not particularly important; for us, that's really only July through September first as the summer fades. Attention is more on the gardens during that period anyway.

I have some research to do as I go, assuming I can't simply rescue the bluegrass I have.

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Re: Winters with lots of rain: less snow?

Post by Green » February 19th, 2023, 8:48 pm

Morph,

To get you started, look into the TTTF cultivar "Summer". It's about two-thirds of the way toward a full dwarf cultivar. I have had good luck with it. It's not known as a higher-rhizome variety, so, like most, it will clump (but you shouldn't notice most of the time). It blends moderstely well to very well with my particular KBG cultivars. It also has a sister cultivar that is supposed to be mostly interchangeable, called "Siesta". I don't know if either has been grown in the past two years, but I believe they're still current products. The selling point is a mostly very fine blade for TTTF, and a slow growth rate (slower than my KBG) most of the year. Color is dark, but definitely not black-green. I'd call it medium-dark. Same as my KBG roughly (which is mostly Bewitched, America, Rugby II). Winter color of the TTTF has tended to suffer moreso than KBG, but that has been the only real negative.

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Re: Winters with lots of rain: less snow?

Post by MorpheusPA » February 20th, 2023, 10:16 am

Awesome, thank you! Given that this winter, my winter color is...not exactly stellar... :-)

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Re: Winters with lots of rain: less snow?

Post by Green » February 20th, 2023, 8:36 pm

Yeah, neither is mine. No lawn around here is, actually, but I know I said that last week already. Lawns are definitely trying to green up (today was 56), but Saturday might top out at like 30. Thankfully we mostly had a break from rain for 3 weeks.

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Re: Winters with lots of rain: less snow?

Post by MorpheusPA » February 21st, 2023, 6:37 pm

Aaaand I had a meeting with my boss' boss today and we were discussing the weather (she's just north of Philly), and we both noted that tomorrow is seventy (55 for me) and then Thursday is 35. We had a thunderstorm today, with more tomorrow.

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